Analysis of the Russian Offensive Campaign – May 26, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
On May 26, 2025, the Institute for the Study of War published an updated evaluation of Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine. This comprehensive report examines recent tactical movements, territorial shifts, and changes in Russian operational capabilities amid staunch Ukrainian resistance. As hostilities persistently influence global geopolitics, this briefing offers vital perspectives on battlefield realities to inform decision-makers and the public about current conflict dynamics.
Eastern Ukraine Conflict Intensifies as Russian Forces Make Measured Advances
In Eastern Ukraine’s contested zones-especially within Donetsk Oblast-Russian troops have secured modest territorial expansions. However, Ukrainian defenders have escalated their resistance through innovative guerrilla warfare techniques and reinforced defensive positions along frontlines. These factors have transformed engagements into drawn-out confrontations characterized by intermittent Russian breakthroughs rather than swift territorial gains. Analysts attribute this sluggish progress to persistent logistical hurdles compounded by relentless Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Critical elements influencing current combat conditions include:
- Ongoing artillery exchanges: Both sides heavily depend on sustained artillery barrages to weaken enemy defenses before ground maneuvers.
- Ukrainian drone deployment: Advanced ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) drones provide real-time intelligence that enhances battlefield awareness.
- Fragile supply lines: Russian logistics convoys remain vulnerable to ambushes and sabotage orchestrated by Ukrainian forces.
- Difficulties in urban warfare: Combat within densely inhabited towns restricts maneuverability and results in elevated casualties among both combatants.
Region | Territorial Gains (km²) | Intensity of Ukrainian Resistance | Estimated Casualties | |||||
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Northern Donetsk | 12 km² | High Resistance | Moderate Losses | |||||
Eastern Luhansk | 7 km² | Very High Resistance td >< td > High Casualties td > tr > | ||||||
Ammunition | Crisis-level shortage | Diminished artillery firepower | ||||||
Fuel | Sporadic deliveries | Lack of mobility for armored formations | ||||||
Spares & Repairs | Poor inventory levels | Elevated mechanical failuresRecommendations for Enhancing Western Assistance & Intelligence Collaboration  The report stresses an immediate requirement for amplified military aid coupled with deeper intelligence-sharing partnerships between Western allies and Ukraine’s armed forces. Such support is essential not only to replenish depleted defensive resources but also introduce advanced technologies including precision-guided munitions that could decisively alter battlefield outcomes against evolving Russian tactics. Main recommendations focus on expanding integrated intelligence frameworks such as :
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